They have already said there will be a Chinese New Year event so I doubt anyone will accept your bet.
They already mentioned they would be avoiding the holiday events and focus more on the release of the new engine, hero remodels, and patches and will then kick start the events again next year with the Chinese new year.
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Sucks this year. No diretide, no frostivus. But I can garenntee you there's gonna be a Chinese New Year event 2015! Volvo how come? Will we wait 2016 til source 2 dota engine with custom maps?