wierd, really.
it may be that you stack with someone who is normal bracket, than it puts you to normal too. You need to play solo games to get into higher bracket.
add me up - i've been looking for indians to play with!
I can guarantee u at least a high level game if not very high :p
thats because your performance in your first few games affects your rating
after that initial smurf detection stage only winning/losing can change your rating
Guys, this is simple statistics with the flipping of a coin being a simple, intuitive understanding of it. You have 54% win rate merely out of 134 games. The score is 73-61. Do you think if you flipped a coin only 134 times, it would be exactly 50%? There is a pretty high chance of it being 54% and beyond. Let's compute it: 17% chance. That's pretty hefty. In other words, it isn't, with that few games played, a strong indicator that you are misplaced.
And now you see the difficulty of a person trying to lock down someone's skill. You don't simply say "54% win rate over the last 134 games, he is misplaced." There are far more advanced mathematics behind it.
You need a longer winstreak. 5 is often enough...you were probably just short. You are currently at 4 so if you solo que and win the next 2 games its likely you will be in high bracket.
These brackets don't mean anything.
I've just checked my smurt account out of curiousity http://pubstats.me/127072391/
100% Very high - how is that even possible, does everyone start off in the very high bracket?
No, pubstats.me is just very inaccurate. You started in Normal. You don't get to Very High until the 7th game.
My pubstats.me missed nearly 600 games. Almost every one I've ever seen has major problems with the numbers.
It might only indicate your games in a certain period when determining "Current Match Distribution" but says otherwise (ie misleading). Who knows how he set up his code.
Its not about your win rate. Its about who you win and lose against. If you're losing to normal players with a low MMR, you are going to stay there. Let's say you just won 3 in a row and you need to win your 4th to get into high, you somehow lose to these low MMR guys, you'll just go straight back down.
What do you guys think is more important for the matchmaking.... kda, winrate, ... ? I really think that based on my overall perfomance i should be playing on high skill braket ..... maybe i just need more games (or i am just bad :P )
doarvicii, that is not your MMR starting in Very High. That is your stacks Very High MMR average being high enough that starting MMR (which is probably in the middle of normal) gets pulled up.
That's possible because of the anti-smurf function...that is also not game one. Everyone's starting MMR is now the same and in Normal.
@Dorkly,
It really is what Relentless said, almost the most important thing is winstreaks, big, winstreaks, where you get maybe high kda. I honestly can't say winrate cause even when I was 49% if I solo queued I'd play very high, and in the past 3-4 weeks I've consistently queued very high with only like 13 games over .500. (Granted I duo queue but my bro has less % + more games + way lower kda). Only reason I'm in the bracket now is cause of some almost 12 game winstreak.
So its based on winning streaks? isnt that a little luck based ? and lets say you have something like 1,300 games ..... could you still be on normal braket ?
Yes, the vast majority of players stay in Normal no matter how many games they play. But its not all luck. When you win a game your MMR increases. When you win multiple games in a row each win increases it by an accelerating amount.
I do not know the exact numbers but let me give you a theoretical example....
You have 3,000 MMR and High bracket starts at about 3.5k. One win is +20. The 2nd win is +30. 3rd win is +45. 4th win is +70.
5th win is + 105....now you are at 3270 and really starting to move...but you also now get significantly weaker players on your team. You still need to win 2 more for 7 game winstreak that would put you in High bracket and they will be harder games.
today i read about guy that lost 3 games marked as normal and got 'promoted' into high next game
no brackets working great
It's more skill based if you can cause your team to win every game in normal for a lot of games (I don't really feel this is hard cause everyone is bad). Don't treat any game seriously in normal, relax, never complain about wards, never bitch at mid for not ganking, spam chat wheel well played, maybe play all random cause people are even worse there, you'll probably win more games lol.
Also to the guy above me, he could've have been the highest mmr person in each of those games + queueing with lower mmr friends, or a "high" player playing in normal based on the average mmr of everyone in the game.
To continue that next game when you are at 3270 and have a 5 game win streak has built up your hidden "uncertainty" value. The game is worth 160 points...you win and you go up to 3430 (almost High bracket)...but if you lose you drop back down to 3110 and the next game is worth 105 points again...uncertainty is smaller because you lost when expected to lose.
So you have to build up that uncertainty number with a win or lose streak to make a large change to MMR. When you start the account they just give you a huge uncertainty and it can jump to Very High in one game. Getting a very high KDA on the first game amplifies your uncertainty. One game was posted a while back where someone was on page 1 their 2nd game. That is a jump of probably 3k MMR in one game....I think it is way to much anti-smurf...but anyway that's how Valve has it set up right now. Any time you a get a mixed win/loss/win/loss pattern that uncertainty that controls how much the games are worth for you becomes small.
If a player is not solo queing every game these patterns are hard to distinguish and understand. Besides this people who are close to the boundary between Normal/High or High/Very High can easily be placed in either one....and that further confuses the issue. This past week I have played in a Normal game, next game High, next game Very High because of queing with different people...the next game was page 3 so the average MMR was probably around 4.5k. But my MMR was probably very similar in all 3 games.
Yo Relentless where you get those numbers? I 2-3 man stack for a few games. Then had a 50% high level games for a week. But after 2 weeks of losing normal bracket. I'm back down to normal. Would like to see what I have to do to play in high again. Also Just me or Very High is easier to steamroll than high level games?
I get the numbers from experience comparing the tMMR results which are public...and my experience using other TSR (trueskillrating) type systems. Again, these are theoretical examples...but probably not to far from reality.
Very High games tend to have stacks of good players...if they get ahead they keep the lead and dominate the game. Is that what you mean?
It's win streaks and loss streaks that change MMR by a lot. That is how TSR prediction works. It trys to make a game that has 50/50 odds for both teams. But each player might be overated or underated. If you lose, the system acts as if you must have been overated and reduces your MMR. To converge faster it also keeps track of your recent history and whether it correctly predicted your win or loss. Every time it gets a game wrong (for you...remember it is trying to give you a win/loss/win/loss pattern)...when it gets a prediction wrong it increases your uncertainty and the next game is worth more points. This allows it to converge on a stable MMR faster.
The only way to be far from 50% is to be so good [or bad :-(] that often matches can't be found to make you lose or win as expected. This mostly happens for the very best players who often just keep winning because they are significantly better than everyone in the que for that mode/language/sever/2 min window etc...and so no matter who is matched to them they win.
Well if you stack with low skill friends or you pick ramdon is near imposible to actually get winning streaks. Its seems pretty boring to force winning streaks by picking some pubstomps heros ( spirit breaker, OD,etc ...).
That means that if i try to play for fun and i pick shadow demon for example ( good hero ..... but you actually depend on your team to carry ) or any other hero that requires team work i am never going to get really big winning streaks and probably stay on normal braket forever.
This entire system seems pretty random ..... i just think that analyzing overall perfomance in a match ( despite being a lost or a win ) could be better.
Its not really hard to force wins on normal braket .... its just seems very boring.
Well thx guys for the info :) .
Keep picking these OP heroes till you get to a higher bracket. Once you're in the higher bracket, you can pick other heroes and most likely, your team will know to pick around the hero you picked.
you can't compare your 52% to other people's win rate in completely different skill regions and wonder why you are lower rated than them
and the system is not random
games are balanced to be at 50% for each side
obviously there 's uncertainty but as long as you are under rated your games should be weighed in your favor
and the more you feel you are being mismatched the easier your games should be
and no there's no one decent actually being held hostage by the evil normal bracket
I have the same problem: 53% winrate but just that one game in high bracket with Shadow Demon that I won (!) . I got a lose streak of 4 games but then I won basically 9 games in a row, the treant protector game (0/1/0) was an early abandoned game (one left before first blood and didn't come back in 5 minutes) so it doesn't count or does it??? And even then... can't I finally get into high bracket?
I got a bad start in Dota 2 (knew nothing about it) but it would be unfair if I needed now a 57% winrate or something like that to get to high bracket and lucky winstreaks. I worked hard to get from 46/47% to 53%... for not a lot. My KDAs are also most times not really bad (anymore) and GPM/XPM is low because of playing support, my Enchantress GPM/XPM are better since I can farm in the woods. I play solo queue only (so far).
@PaintingAPictureOfMyself well what i am trying to say is that i am pretty sure that some people with 49 % winrate is better than a lot of 60 % winrate players. You can still be a bad player and play with a 5 man stack who win for you.
In this case players who solo queue would be in a worst position.
In other words i dont think winrate is a good way to judge players skills. I am not speaking about myself i know that i am still bad in the game, i am just speaking about the system itself.
And plus sometimes strange things happens on matchmaking .... like some weeks ago i was matched with a player in his first dota game. I am not speaking about a smurf it was literally his first dota 2 game.
I dont know why valve is afraid to detail us how the matchmaking works step by step.
Edit: Its seems more accurate on high level games for some reason.
it's because of how dota works
if you are having a good game and everyone on your team is doing an okay job you might think you are playing with good people
in actuality you could be playing with the same people against the same enemies next game and get completely fucked and think that everyone on your team is bad
people, despite having no fucking clue how to play dota, have very strong opinions, especially when they are losing a game everyone seems to know why they did so, and it's mostly not their own fault, for some reason
it's actually no mystery how matchmaking works, it's actually pretty obvious
there are some minor things about it that might have a greater or lesser impact and you obviously don't know the exact numbers behind it
some minor things might actually not go into it while others do
if you really struggle winning normal games with your MMR then there is no way you should be matched in higher ranked games
that doesn't mean you couldn't win a game in higher level games but on average you'd be performing considerably worse than the average player and you'd become one of those players you are actually complaining about, who are ruining your games/forcing you to lose
54% is not that much on 130 games. I had 55% Until game 300 or so. I never went up to very high bracket this time. I went very high when i started stacking alot with good players. Now I am at 50,XX% and I play mostly very high. Its hard in VH bracket to get a winratio way higher, if you do not "abuse" stompcombos. Wisp + Ursa/CK/Mort/Riki or Tree/Weaver/Bara every game would bring my winratio up I guess.
Only rly talented players with good control of their hero and decent teamplay can get way over 50% in the top playerbase. Beating the top 4-5% in 6 out of 10 games is not easy. Beating the crap out of the crap of the dotabase is not hard.
With a smurfaccount you can go very high without stacking in 3-7 games. Just pick a stomphero. Go 30-0-20 in 3 games and see what happens.
OP wins 54% of his games against "normal" players. Keep it up for more games and you will be in high sooner or later. It is possible to keep your Winratio there, if you play your strongest heros only all the time. Some games later you will be very high. You just need a 10-12 winstreak from your point to get very high.
I know players with 52% Winratio who are in the top 2% worldwide (or where when the Dotabuffrating was implemented). Even Dendi has only 55% winratio and is considerd to be one of the best players worldwide.
Winratio just tells you, how good you are gainst ppl in your own Bracket. Normal 40-50% is a bad sign.
I dont really think we are talking about the same stuff here. For some reason you are thinking that i am talking about me, while what i am trying to say is that the system is very inaccurate, based on my experience and on other people experience ... i am talking about players on they first dota game playing with others with 300 + wins, maybe on high and very high this kind of thing dont happen .... and maybe thats why you dont remenber having this kind of games, but i can assure you that this kind of stuff happens.
Anyway i guess what i am saying has nothing to do with the thread so i may stop here , sorry for writing so much :D
your problem is that you are looking at things like win rates and number of wins or maybe even kda, while you should be thinking about MMR
obviously all the aforementioned factors are somehow included in your MMR but they are all worthless if you don't put them in perspective
someone with 300+ wins isn't necessarily better than someone with 5 wins and if the 300+win player still hasn't advanced in MMR then he probably is right where he belongs
he's probably better than he was when he had 5 wins but for the sake of fairness you wouldn't want people of unequal skill to play with each other
Remember when they asked you, are you new average or experienced. when you first opened your account, this strongly effects where you are placed in your first 100 games.
I have noticed that MMR has a few placement games when you first start your account (in a way similar to SC2 or LoL ranking system), and it is to prevent smurfing, so that if you win a bunch of games right off the bat you would skyrocket into very high and not ruin noob games with your awesome skills, now that being said, if you lose a bunch of games right off the bat, you're going to fall into a deep pit that will take work climbing out of.
And as relentless said, streaks greatly affect your bracket placement. I went from queing normal 100% of the time, and went on a 10 game winning streak, and ended up in very high.
Also do not use pubstats as a evidence/proof, I will check my stats one day, not play any games and check a day later and all of a sudden ive played 20% more games in very high.
I have 50%ish and I swing between normal and high (only had one very high) and there seems to be no logic as to how the matches are chosen (e.g. I'll do well in a high match and go back to normal vice versa). Also teammates don't get better in high.
I have another account (initially smurf w/2 games that I had lying around) that I share with a friend who is new to DotA 2 (he didn't have a steam acc). It has a 45% win rate, and is in Very High.
It would appear that XPM/GPM and KDA are factors, but it would probably be heavily weighted according to the internal ratings of others in the match.
i hope you aren't talking about him playing on the Australian server
that would be dumb wouldn't it
54% in normal is horrible lol. Also, you lost your first game in normal bracket... I really don't think wr amounts to much in mmr, but it certainly plays a role to some extent. Still for you to be losing in normal bracket it's indication enough that you belong there. The people in very high are horrible players(until you reach page <4 where you play mostly against try hards)... yet I bet around 99% of them could maintain a 90% winrate if playing in normal. I suggest you watch the professionals play and try to imitate them. After some practice you may reach high, because right you are certainly not good enough for high.
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Not even one game.